Rishi Sunak, the current Prime Minister of the UK, is heading to the Conservative Party’s conference with one goal in mind: to convince the nation that he can win the next general election. However, many of his own party members are already preparing for a scenario in which he doesn’t come out on top.
Sunak has been trying to solidify his support base in recent weeks by scaling back on green measures and considering a reassessment of the HS2 rail project. But despite his efforts, national polls indicate that he is unlikely to remain as the country’s leader after the upcoming election. The Labour Party has maintained a double-digit lead in the polls for over a year, and YouGov’s most recent poll gives them a 21-point advantage.
While Sunak has managed to suppress the threat of an internal leadership challenge for now, there are many Tories working behind the scenes to position themselves as potential leaders if the election doesn’t go well for Sunak. According to interviews with Conservative lawmakers, advisers, and donors, there are at least 13 potential contenders for the role. However, these individuals spoke to Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity.
One Member of Parliament revealed that the underlying theme of the Tory conference was the battle for the party’s future. Another source stated that Sunak was already considered a lame duck leader. Despite this, Sunak’s supporters claim that his team is focused on ensuring the success of his premiership and not getting distracted by events beyond their control. They are also actively working to support the prime minister and push for a Conservative victory in the upcoming election. Some members of the party still believe that Sunak could pull off a victory or stay on as leader if Labour fails to secure an outright majority.
Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, commented on the potential replacement for Sunak if he loses the election, saying that it would depend on the degree of defeat. He emphasized that the post-election makeup of the party will determine its leader.
Here are the potential Tory leadership contenders:
– Kemi Badenoch: Sunak’s business secretary, known for her celebration of the “benefits of Brexit” and her popularity among Tory members.
– Liz Truss: A divisive figure due to her previous tenure as prime minister, she still aims to influence party politics and could consider running for leader.
– Suella Braverman: The home secretary known for taking a harder line on immigration and culture issues, but her pitch may be undermined by her service under Sunak.
– James Cleverly: The foreign secretary, seen by some as a unity candidate, with broad appeal.
– Penny Mordaunt and Tom Tugendhat: Tory centrists who hope to coalesce around one candidate, with Mordaunt losing two leadership runs last year.
– Grant Shapps and Michael Gove: More experienced leaders who could serve as interim caretakers until a younger face is ready.
– Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg: Rivals of Braverman’s, with Patel potentially splitting the right-wing vote and Rees-Mogg seeking a role as shadow chancellor.
These are just a few of the potential candidates, and there are other names being suggested as well. The outcome will depend on various factors, including the extent of the Tories’ election defeat.
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