Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Munich is the setting for this special on-the-road edition of SitRep from the Munich Security Conference (MSC). Here’s what we have in store today: Observing Ukraine’s war prospects, inquiries on Israel’s campaign against Hamas, the timeline for when Kyiv could receive Western F-16s, and more.
Ukraine’s War Prospects
Ukraine has recently lost an eastern city to Russia after two years of fighting. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has openly discussed encouraging Russia to attack NATO allies that aren’t spending enough on defense. U.S. military aid to Ukraine is stalled in Congress. Despite this, NATO’s top military official, Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer, remains optimistic about Ukraine’s chances in fending off Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Doom and Gloom
The mood at the MSC is grim, but senior Western defense officials are frustrated by the pessimism surrounding Ukraine. Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, points out the achievements of Ukraine over the past two years and the support it has received from allies and partners. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also criticized the excessive negativity surrounding Ukraine.
Situation in Ukraine
The narrative that Ukraine is on the brink of losing the war is exaggerated. Russia’s territorial gains in the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka are not substantial, and the costs for Moscow have been significant. Ukraine, despite facing ammunition shortages, has been rationing its resources efficiently. The country’s resilience and Russia’s poor battlefield tactics are factors in the stalemate.
Concerns for Ukraine
Despite Ukraine’s resilience, some of its strongest supporters are concerned about wavering Western commitments and frustrated by the impasse holding up a vital new package of aid and military equipment. Questions also linger about Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.
Gaza Conflict
Doubts are emerging about whether Israel can achieve a total military defeat of Hamas in Gaza. Despite a massive military operation, doubts remain about Israel’s ability to clear the territory it has taken and destroy the extensive network of Hamas tunnels. Furthermore, Hamas’s presence extends beyond Gaza.
F-16s for Ukraine
Ukraine is expected to receive U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets in June, according to European officials present at the MSC. This signifies a significant development in Ukraine’s military capabilities.