The surprise attack by Hamas on Israel was a massive operation that involved thousands of personnel and a wide range of equipment. It is perplexing how such a significant attack could be planned and executed without the Israeli intelligence service, known for its effectiveness, detecting it. Israel suffered significant losses in terms of military outposts, armored vehicles, settlements, and casualties. The attack serves as a reminder of Hamas’s capabilities and resources. Despite being labeled a terrorist group, Hamas has maintained control over Gaza since 2007, even in the face of constant threats from Israel and other radical groups within Gaza.
The details of Hamas’s strategy for the attack remain unknown, but the potential consequences are evident. A war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has the potential to disrupt the entire Middle East region. Israel is now faced with a difficult choice between appearing weak or inflicting mass casualties, both of which have significant implications. Reports of Palestinian casualties from Israel’s retaliatory airstrikes on Saturday have already sparked outrage and condemnation.
Israel’s efforts to normalize relations with parts of the Arab world could be jeopardized by the conflict. Since 2020, Israel has signed recognition agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Even Turkey, which has long positioned itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, has recently engaged in talks with Israel. Calls for de-escalation from Erdogan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others were swift and likely genuine. These nations understand the political pressures they will face if Palestinian casualties continue to rise.
While Major General Ghasan Alyan holds Hamas responsible for the consequences of the attack, the Muslim world is unlikely to focus on who fired first. Outrage over Israeli actions in recent months and years, particularly around the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, has been building. Alyan’s words will carry less weight than those of Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif, who stated that the attack was launched because “enough is enough.”
Already, the Saudi government statement has positioned Hamas’s actions as retaliatory, citing the dangers of continued occupation and provocations against Palestinian sanctities. Hamas, which has never recognized Israel’s right to exist, likely factored in these dynamics when planning the attack. The group’s calculated nature was evident in a previous encounter when they offered protection against potential threats targeting a US journalist.
Hamas’s aggressive actions will likely bolster its support base and aid recruitment efforts. Responding to Hamas while keeping Israeli-Arab normalization on track will be an arduous task for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly if the conflict continues. The longer the fighting persists, the more challenging it will be to maintain the delicate balance between addressing security concerns and preserving diplomatic relationships.
(Marc Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author