Sinai Enclosure in Egypt Readied amidst Israeli Threats to Rafah

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief. The highlights this week: President Macky Sall defers election date amid chaos in Senegal, Nigeria tightens regulations on bitcoin while Ethiopia embraces it, and ECOWAS removes sanctions on Niger. Sign up here to receive Africa Brief in your inbox every Wednesday. Will Egypt Accept Rafah Refugees? Egypt has constructed a walled enclosure and cleared over 6 square miles of land in North Sinai following Israel’s planned ground offensive into Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the invasion of Rafah, home to approximately 1.4 million Palestinians, to eradicate Hamas fighters. Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies shows ongoing construction along the Egypt-Gaza border, indicating a 23-foot-high cement wall enclosure from Goz Abu Waad to the Mediterranean coast. Egyptian officials deny allegations that the enclosure is meant for Palestinian refugees. Egypt is preparing for a potential influx of Palestinians into Sinai if Israel escalates its offensive into Rafah, although it has stated it will not provide permanent safe areas. Camp David at Risk? There are reports that Egypt could annul its 1979 peace treaty with Israel if forced to accept Gaza residents into Sinai. However, experts doubt Cairo will pull out of the treaty given the significant benefits it receives, including aid from Washington, intelligence sharing, and increased gas exports from Israel. Egypt reaffirmed its commitment to the treaty but could take lesser steps such as recalling its ambassador or downgrading security ties. Egypt is wary of Hamas ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and the security risks posed by allowing Hamas fighters in Sinai. Hamas-Brotherhood links raise concerns for Egypt’s internal security, especially if Hamas launches attacks on Israel from Egyptian territory. Egypt fears the prospect of hosting Palestinian refugees amid economic challenges and ongoing devaluation of the Egyptian pound. U.S. Sudan Envoy and Senegal Elections Former Rep. Tom Perriello has been appointed as the new U.S. special envoy to Sudan amid reports of atrocities by Sudan’s warring generals. In Senegal, President Macky Sall faces criticism for delaying the election date despite his mandate ending on April 2. Sall proposed an amnesty bill for those jailed during political demonstrations as an alternative to setting the election date, further exacerbating tensions with the opposition. Tunisia’s One-Man Rule Tunisia sentenced former President Moncef Marzouki to eight years in prison in absentia for allegedly attempting to overthrow the government through critical statements. Marzouki is among several political opponents charged since President Kais Saied’s consolidation of power in 2021. Opposition members, including Rached Ghannouchi, have also faced sentencing over accusations of receiving foreign contributions. ECOWAS Lifts Niger Sanctions The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) lifted sanctions on Niger on Saturday, marking a step towards economic stability in the region.